Investors in Expedia Group Inc (Symbol: EXPE) saw new options begin trading today, for expiration in September 2024. One of the most important inputs that go into the price an option buyer is willing to pay is time value, so with 317 days to expiration, the new trade contracts represent a possible opportunity for sellers of puts or calls to obtain a higher premium than would be available for the contracts with a closer expiration. At the Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the EXPE options chain for the new September 2024 contracts and identified a put and a call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $115.00 strike price has a current bid of $11.90. If an investor were to sell-to-open that put contract, they are obligated to buy the stock at $115.00, but will also collect the premium, which puts the cost basis of the stock at $103.10 (before brokerage commissions). For an investor already interested in buying shares of EXPE, it could represent an attractive alternative to paying $117.87/share today.
Because the $115.00 strike represents an approximately 2% discount to the stock’s current trading price (in other words, it is out of the money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the put contract will expire worthless. The current analytical data (including Greeks and implied Greeks) suggests that the current odds of that happening are 99%. Stock Options Channel will track these odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of these numbers on our website under the contract details page for that contract. If the contract expires worthless, the premium will represent a return of 10.35% of the cash commitment, or 11.92% annualized — at the Stock Options Channel we call this YieldBoost.
Below is a chart showing the last 12 months of trading history for Expedia Group Inc, highlighting in green where the $115.00 strike is located relative to that history:
Turning to the call side of the options chain, the $120.00 strike price call contract has a current bid of $17.20. If an investor were to buy shares of EXPE stock at the current price level of $117.87/share and then sell to open that call contract as a “covered call”, they are required to sell the stock at $120.00. Given that the call seller will also collect the premium, calling the stock at expiration in September 2024 (before brokerage commissions) would yield a total return (excluding dividends, if any) of 16.40%. Of course, a lot of upside could potentially be left on the table if EXPE shares really rise, which is why it becomes important to look at the last 12 months of trading history for Expedia Group Inc. Below is a chart showing EXPE’s trailing 12 month trading history, with the $120.00 strike highlighted in red:
Given the fact that the $120.00 strike represents an approximate 2% premium to the stock’s current trading price (in other words, it is out of the money by that percentage), there is also the possibility that the covered call contract would expire worthless, in which case the investor would keep both their shares of stock and the premium collected. The current analytical data (including Greeks and implied Greeks) suggests that the current odds of that happening are 99%. On our website under the contract detail page for this contract, the stock options channel will track these odds over time to see how they change and publish a chart of these numbers (the trading history of the options contract will also be charted). If the covered call contract expires worthless, the premium will represent a boost of 14.59% of additional return to the investor, or 16.80% on an annualized basis, which we call YieldBoost.
Meanwhile, we calculate the actual trailing 12-month volatility (considering the last 251 trading days’ closing values as well as today’s price of $117.87) to be 45%. For more bid and call option contracts worth watching, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.