by CORENTIN CHAPPRON
PARIS (Reuters) – The main European stock markets are expected to be steady at the open on Tuesday amid cautious trading ahead of the release of U.S. retail sales data and the backdrop of a slowing Chinese economy.
The first indications available indicate that the Paris CAC 40 would be steady at the open, as would the FTSE in London and the Dax in Frankfurt. Conversely, the EuroStoxx 50 rose 0.14 per cent.
US retail sales and industrial production data due on Tuesday will provide a gauge of the resilience of the US economy as the Federal Reserve prepares for its final meeting of the summer on July 26.
Investors are starting to bet on a divergence between European and US monetary policy, as the European Central Bank may continue to raise interest rates beyond the summer, while markets expect the Fed to end its rate hike cycle at the end of July.
The quarterly earnings season, which began last week and will intensify this week, is also urging investors to be cautious.
The slowdown in activity in China, confirmed by the release of data on Monday, is also weighing on sentiment.
BY WALL STREET
Wall Street ended in the green on Tuesday, supported by the financials and technology sectors, while many quarterly corporate results are due this week.
The Dow Jones index rose 0.22% to 34,585.35 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.39% to 4,522.79 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.93% to 14,244.95 points.
In Tokyo, Japanese indexes rose, supported by the semiconductor and banking sectors, but still under pressure from weaker-than-expected Chinese activity data released yesterday. The Nikkei gained 0.08% to 32,418.25 points, while the Topix rose 0.46% to 2,249.36 points.
Chinese indexes fell as a series of economic data published on Monday confirmed that growth remained weak in the second quarter. The Shanghai SSE Composite lost 0.05%, the CSI 300 stagnated and the Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell 1.84%.
This poor performance weighed on all the Asian stock indices, with the LMSCI Asia-Pacific excluding Japan index falling 0.63% during the session.
A possible divergence between US and European monetary policy weighed on the dollar, with market expectations suggesting the Fed could raise interest rates one last time in July, while the ECB and Bank of England could continue to tighten monetary policy after the summer.
The dollar fell 0.14% against a basket of benchmark currencies, near a one-year low, while the euro rose 0.20% to $1.1257, its highest level since February 2022.
The pound rose 0.21% to $1.3098.
The yen strengthened 0.27% ahead of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting next week, while hawkish Bank of Australia minutes supported the Australian dollar, up 0.19% to $0.6829.
US bond markets remain steady pending the release of retail sales data.
The ten-year Treasury yield stagnated at 3.7912%, while the two-year yield held steady at 4.7149%.
The oil market rose slightly after Russia released figures on Monday indicating that its exports would fall in the second half of the year, in line with the country’s decision to cut output.
Brent nibbles 0.33% to $78.76 a barrel. barrel, US light crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 0.38% to $74.43.
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